Explaining Romney's Disastrous Tuesday

Why is Romney doing badly in some of the states where he once did so well?


One of the remarkable things about Rick Santorum's surge on Tuesday night against Mitt Romney was this; in 2008, Romney finished only four percent behind John McCain in Missouri, in Minnesota he won by a margin of 19% and in Colorado, over 60% of the votes cast were for Gov. Romney. Four years later, he was beaten in all three states by Rick Santorum, and by healthy margins in most of them.


Two explanations spring forward; firstly, these states do not like backing the obvious front-runner and look for a candidate perceived to be to his/her right. In 2008, the presumptive candidate was Sen. John McCain (having won big in Florida, as Romney did this time). In the states that followed, Republican voters were looking to support a less establishment more conservative candidate. In 2008, that was Romney. This time, Romney is the establishment candidate and has nobody else to run to the right of.


The second explanation is a much scarier one for Team Romney. It was once suggested to me that despite all of the hype and the certainty around the Romney candidacy, he would not win his party's nomination. Why? Because he had run just four years earlier and people need more than four years to consider supporting a loser again (recent history can find challenges to this, of course, like Ronald Reagan in 1980, but the rule applies fairly well). The big risk for Romney is that in states like Colorado, who put so much faith in him last time, they are not willing to support him again so soon after he failed.


Tuesday's defeats are not a disaster for Romney. After winning Florida in 2008, John McCain went on to lose fifteen states before finally securing the nomination. To do likewise, Romney needs to continue to take the fight to President Obama whilst letting his supporters undermine his Republican opponents. In order to win the nomination, Romney must stop appearing the guaranteed winner of the primaries and appear to his party as the presumptive winner of the Presidency.